About 4ex.ninja
Our H4 EMA Strategy
4ex.ninja delivers forex trading signals through our optimized H4 EMA crossover strategy. Each pair uses individually tuned parameters validated through Monte Carlo simulation and Out-of-Sample (OOS) testing across 2024-2025 market conditions.
Optimized 4-Pair Portfolio: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, and USD/JPY — each with pair-specific parameters validated through rigorous statistical testing. Quality over quantity — we trade only what's proven.
📊 View Research Archive
Explore our complete backtest results across all tested pairs, including methodology and analysis that led to our current portfolio selection.
Optimized Portfolio Performance
Our portfolio consists of 4 pairs with individually optimized parameters. Each configuration was validated through Monte Carlo simulation (1,000+ resamples) and Out-of-Sample testing on 2024-2025 market data.
Current Portfolio (OOS 2024-2025)
Highest pip performance
Strong consistent performer
COT sentiment filtered
Best profit factor
Total OOS Performance: +2,562 pips across 4 optimized pairs with profit factors ranging from 1.23 to 1.82. All parameters validated through Monte Carlo simulation.
Why 4 Pairs?
We tested our H4 EMA strategy across 10 major forex pairs. Through rigorous parameter optimization and Monte Carlo validation, we identified 4 pairs with statistically robust edges that persist in out-of-sample conditions.
Pairs Not Currently Trading
Our Philosophy: Quality over quantity. We trade only pairs that pass Monte Carlo simulation (90%+ positive outcomes) with validated OOS performance. This approach prioritizes statistical rigor over portfolio size.
Strategy Methodology
Pair-Specific EMA Crossovers
Each pair uses individually optimized EMA parameters on the 4-hour timeframe. Parameters were selected through grid search optimization and validated via Monte Carlo simulation to ensure statistical robustness across market conditions.
RSI Confirmation Filter
Signals require RSI confirmation with pair-specific periods. This multi-factor approach reduces false signals and improves entry timing by filtering out overbought/oversold conditions before trend reversals.
ATR-Based Risk Management
Stop losses are calculated using ATR (Average True Range), adapting to current volatility conditions. This dynamic approach provides appropriate breathing room during volatile periods while maintaining tight risk control in calmer markets.
COT Sentiment Integration
EUR/GBP utilizes Commitment of Traders (COT) data as an additional filter, trading only when commercial positioning aligns with the technical signal. This sentiment layer addresses the pair's unique characteristics that pure technical analysis misses.
Risk Management
Kill Switch Protections
- • Daily loss limit: >5% of account triggers emergency mode
- • Pair loss limit: >100 pips on any pair triggers emergency mode
- • Consecutive losses: >10 in a row triggers emergency mode
- • Account drawdown: >20% triggers emergency mode
Risk Disclosure
Important Risk Warning: Forex trading involves substantial risk and may result in significant financial losses. Past performance, including OOS results, does not guarantee future results.
- • OOS profit factors range from 1.23 to 1.82 — validated but not guaranteed
- • Trading costs (spreads, slippage) will reduce net performance
- • Maximum expected portfolio drawdowns of 15-20% during adverse conditions
- • Strategy optimized for 2020-2025 conditions — future regimes may differ
- • 6 of 10 originally tested pairs did not meet validation criteria
- • Monte Carlo validation reduces but does not eliminate overfitting risk
Always exercise prudent risk management. Never exceed 0.5% risk per trade, maintain maximum 5% portfolio heat, and never trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. Consider our signals as part of a comprehensive trading plan rather than standalone investment advice.